Oscar Watch 3: Locks and Longshots
Best Film Editing
By the Numbers: Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg have the lion’s share of recent awards for their efforts in making the CIA thriller Zero Dark Thirty all the more taut and penetrating in its exposé of the search for the world’s most hated man. All signs point to another trophy coming their way soon.
On Second Thought: Interestingly enough, Goldenberg is nominated separately for his work on another CIA feature, the fantastically tense Argo. While both films are top quality, Academy voters may be swayed by the feel-good vibes of the rescue from Iran rather than the raid in Afghanistan.
Best Visual Effects
By the Numbers: With the Visual Effects Society having their say, the creative team for Life of Pi has a strong foothold in this category, and coupled with multiple nods from the International 3-D Society for the groundbreaking appearance brought about in such a fantasy, they might have the win clinched.
On Second Thought: Life of Pi stands out against four big popcorn movies thanks to its vivid look and pensive tone. There’s hardly any competition.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
By the Numbers: With the element of hair officially being honored starting this year, there’s a greater focus beyond just the faces of movie characters. In that vein, the coifs, both beautiful and hideous, of Les Misérables may have an advantage.
On Second Thought: It still feels wrong to think that a movie like Norbit got Oscar caliber recognition, but a convincing fat suit is a rarity. Making the slim Anthony Hopkins look like the corpulent Master of Suspense in Hitchcock makes the movie about the making of Psycho all the more impressive.
Best Original Score
By the Numbers: Mychael Danna’s music for Life of Pi has garnered some attention, as has Thomas Newman’s twist on the score for Skyfall, but neither is a huge leader. Danna may take the win purely because of the audio/visual experience Pi offers to its audience.
On Second Thought: You always want to watch your back competing against an old pro, and with nearly 50 nominations under his belt, John Williams is never out of the running, and his Critics’ Choice Award-winning score for Lincoln could prove to be a dark horse. He may not have won in two decades, but remember: his last win was for a Steven Spielberg movie.
Best Original Song
By the Numbers: Adele’s universal popularity has seeped into the film world with her soulful Bond tune, “Skyfall,” co-written by Paul Epworth, and it seems like this is all but a sure thing, especially since the Bond franchise’s 50th anniversary will be celebrated during the festivities.
On Second Thought: With the hullabaloo surrounding the translation of “Pi’s Lullaby,” the one possible contender has been weakened and the likelihood of host Seth MacFarlane winning for “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted depends entirely on his ability to rig the voting. James Franco didn’t win Best Actor when he was host, so it’s tough luck for the teddy bear.
Best Original Screenplay
By the Numbers: Taking home all the big prizes for his script about slave revenge, Quentin Tarantino has the edge with Django Unchained. Despite all the blowback from his use of the word “nigger,” remember, his Oscar-winning screenplay for Pulp Fiction was just as profane.
On Second Thought: While Tarantino has taken home the more prestigious honors, the Writers Guild of America went with Mark Boal’s writing for Zero Dark Thirty. While not a huge indicator, Boal did beat out Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds with The Hurt Locker, for both the Academy and the WGA, so it’s something to think about.
Best Adapted Screenplay
By the Numbers: The heat is on between Tony Kushner’s Lincoln and David O. Russell’s adaptation of the novel Silver Linings Playbook, both of whom have received a decent amount of attention at award ceremonies lately. However, Kushner has the scales tipped in his favor mostly because his movie involves real-life events.
On Second Thought: Speaking of things that actually happened, don’t count out Chris Terrio for his cobbling together of Antonio J. Mendez’s memoirs and subsequent articles on the subject to form the basis of Argo. What’s more, Terrio also won the WGA Award…
Best Supporting Actress
By the Numbers: Anne Hathaway’s tender, tearful performance in Les Misérables has garnered her all the major awards, with plenty more to boot. If there’s one certainty of this year’s Academy Awards, it’s that Fantine can’t be beaten.
On Second Thought: Do you really need to think twice about this one?
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