Oscar Watch 3: Locks and Longshots
Best Supporting Actor
By the Numbers: With BAFTA Award and Golden Globe wins, Christoph Waltz is ahead by a nose for his portrayal of Dr. King Schultz in Django Unchained, the polar opposite of Col. Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds, for which he already won in this category and came to the attention of those of us in America. The 180 may help Waltz repeat that victory, though Leonardo DiCaprio or Samuel L. Jackson would have been much more worthy nominees for Django.
On Second Thought: Waltz may have some good momentum, but Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) also have built up some steam. In a category that also includes Alan Arkin (Argo) and Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), there’s no real guarantee for anyone.
Best Actress
By the Numbers: Here’s a tough one. Jessica Chastain won the Critics’ Choice Award for Zero Dark Thirty, Jennifer Lawrence won the Screen Actors Guild Award for Silver Linings Playbook, and each won a Golden Globe recently, plus they’ve each had a strong career since their breakthroughs. What’s more, both have been heralded as the keystones of their respective films. My pick is Lawrence, but the odds on Chastain are just as good.
On Second Thought: Sometimes, the Oscar goes to the nominee who’s been in the business the longest or shortest amount of time. If you look at it that way, Amour octogenarian Emmanuelle Riva has some play as the oldest woman ever to be nominated in the category. Conversely, novice Quvenzhané Wallis is the youngest ever, not to mention the winner of countless honors for an incredible turn in Beasts of the Southern Wild. Poor Naomi Watts, being stuck right in the middle…
Best Actor
By the Numbers: Daniel Day-Lewis rarely has much to worry about during this time of year, and his near-flawless Abraham Lincoln may be his best performance yet, bringing him award after award and more than likely a third Oscar for his mantle.
On Second Thought: First-time nominees Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) and Hugh Jackman (Les Misérables) won’t be able to pull off an upset, nor will Joaquin Phoenix (The Master). However, Denzel Washington’s previous wins have always come from left field, and the acclaim he’s gotten for his role in Flight shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Best Director
By the Numbers: If we’re going strictly by previous wins, then the obvious victor should be Ben Affleck for helming Argo. Trouble is that he’s not even nominated, despite being recognized by the Directors Guild of America! This makes Affleck the first filmmaker to win that decisive award only to be snubbed by the Academy since Ron Howard won the DGA Award for Apollo 13. Should we hope for a write-in campaign?
On Second Thought: Every nominee is a worthy competitor here, from Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) to Ang Lee (Life of Pi) to David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) to Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild). Yet, only one of the five possible winners has a few traits separating him from the pack: Michael Haneke for Amour. Besides claiming the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, he also has the good fortune of being French the year after The Artist so enraptured Oscar voters.
Best Picture
By the Numbers: Out of the nine nominees, Argo seems to be the heaviest hitter, after winning a Golden Globe, a Critics’ Choice Award and a BAFTA Award. At least if Affleck isn’t nominated for direction, he can get something special as a producer.
On Second Thought: As far as the rest of the nominees go, the ones which may come from behind to win the top prize of the night are Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings Playbook, but you can’t ever be 100 percent certain when it comes to Best Picture. The real wild card is “Amour,” the first Best Foreign Language Film nominee to also be up for Best Picture since Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon. No matter what happens, we should be in for a good show!
Who do you think will win Best Picture? Cast your votes in the comments area or on our Facebook page!
