When you’re making your Oscar picks in the hopes of winning a little extra cash from friends and family, it never hurts to analyze the last few months for helpful data. The awards shows leading up to the 84th Academy Awards can help predict who will win the biggest prizes of all. Even so, history shows us that a huge upset is always possible in any category. Now that the voting process is completely finished, allow me to elucidate while sharing which candidates I believe to be the likely winners.

First of all, let me admit from the very start that I’m a terrible judge of what will win in some of the less prominent categories. Every year, presenters explain what distinguishes sound editing from sound mixing and I can barely hear the difference from the samples they play. As for other categories, I, like 99 percent of the world, have seen none of the documentaries or short film entries up for awards, and only have a modicum of information about any of them. That being said, my picks for such competitors are as follows with no major explanation:

Best Sound Editing — Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Best Sound Mixing — The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Best Documentary Feature — Pina

Best Documentary Short Subject — Saving Face

Best Live Action Short Film — The Shore

Best Animated Short Film — La Luna

Anyway, now let’s get down to some of the categories I can actually pick without writing down names on index cards, affixing them to the wall, and tossing a dart.

Best Foreign Language Film

Statistically speaking: It takes a lot of ingenuity to find oneself at the top of film critic Roger Ebert’s list of favorite films of the year. This year, the veteran moviegoer chose the Iranian film A Separation for the best overall movie of 2011. The Farsi-language feature about a couple struggling with their marriage amid familial woes has wowed at countless film festivals all over the world and in its native land alike. And by all indications is headed for the winner’s circle once again.

Going by your gut: Officially titled Jodái-e Náder az Simin, or The Separation of Nader from Simin, the frontrunner is almost certainly a lock for the prize. Besides filmmaker Asghar Farhadi being laden with previous awards, this is only the second Iranian film ever up for the distinction of the Foreign Language slot, since 1998’s Children of Heaven. Geographically speaking, A Separation has an advantage since the Academy’s efforts to honor talents across the map often play into their selections. Fellow Middle Eastern feature Footnote from frequent nominee Israel offers some wider diversity, competing against countries like Belgium, Canada, and Poland.

Best Animated Feature

Statistically speaking: Without a Pixar movie in the running this year, the probable victor here is Rango, which took home the cartoon industry’s equivalent of Best Picture at the Annie Awards. Rarely do the vocal talents of animated films get acknowledgment, but star Johnny Depp has snagged a Teen Choice Award and a People’s Choice Award for providing voice to the title reptile, a confused chameleon who accidentally becomes a hero to a dusty hamlet full of despondent desert critters in a story with one reference after another to classic Westerns.

Going by your gut: The newest Oscar category of the list has only been part of the show for the last 10 years. The 2002 Academy Awards — which happened to be my first time viewing the ceremony — saw Shrek as the inaugural winner. A decade later, the movie that couldn’t have happened if not for the big green ogre could repeat that success. The fairy tale fun of DreamWorks Animation’s Puss in Boots could very well come from behind to claim the honor, as could the studio’s Kung Fu Panda 2, with its precursor losing to WALL•E a few years ago. It’s a real crapshoot here, and even the lesser-known entries A Cat in Paris and Chico & Rita can’t be counted out just yet. Hayao Miyazaki’s Spirited Away proved the dark horse always has a chance.

Best Costume Design

Statistically speaking: Walking away with trophies from prestigious establishments like the Critics Choice Movie Awards and the British Academy of Film and Television Awards, Mark Bridges has a good lead on getting an Oscar for his work on The Artist. Given the wardrobe in the singularly unique look at 1920s and 1930s Hollywood, he certainly has little cause for concern.

Going by your gut: Nothing is ever certain in this category, especially in a year when every nominee is a period piece. The Shakespearean era Anonymous and the pre-Victorian Jane Eyre each have their single nomination for costumes, as does the blend of past and present in Madonna’s directorial debut, W.E. With Hugo leading the nominations for the year with 11, its laurels will probably come in other forms.

Best Cinematography

Statistically speaking: With his bold camerawork, Guillaume Schiffman was one of many recipients at the BAFTAs to be awarded for his work on the The Artist, the single entry this year to be presented in a colorless format. Considering the name of the film, and its theme of keeping up artistic integrity no matter what anyone says, there’s hardly much cause to believe he won’t win.

Going by your gut: First-time nominee Schiffman has some stiff competition, with more than a dozen previous nominations shared by his four opponents. Emmanuel Lubezki’s explosive shots from The Tree of Life and Robert Richardson’s 3-D camera techniques in Hugo offer the biggest threat, but still, there are no guarantees.

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