Oscar Watch Part 3: The Picks
Best Adapted Screenplay
Statistically speaking: The trio of Alexander Payne, Jim Rash, and Nat Faxon lost out at the Globes thanks to combined categories, but the writers of The Descendants still picked up their own WGA honor for adapting Kaui Hart Hemmings’ novel about a Hawaiian family coping with a major life change. A string of regional critics’ awards also strengthen their chances.
Going by your gut: The straightforwardness of The Descendants makes it easy to follow, but sometimes excruciating complexity can be your friend. The immensity of the story in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, and the difficulty of trimming it down for the screen, give Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan a boost that Payne and his compatriots just don’t have. Aaron Sorkin’s win for The Social Network shows you can’t count out movies based on non-fiction, and he and Steven Zaillian still remain in good standing for their take on the great American pastime in Moneyball.
Best Supporting Actress
Statistically speaking: Having swept nearly all the big award shows up until now for her role in The Help, Octavia Spencer is lengths ahead of her fellow nominees. As the biggest laugh-getter of the acclaimed movie, it’s her race to lose at this point.
Going by your gut: While Spencer beat out three of her four competitors — Bérénice Bejo, Janet McTeer, and The Help co-star Jessica Chastain — at the Golden Globes, the one difference in the ballot here is wild card Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids, taking the fifth opening Shailene Woodley filled at the Globes. Fulfilling a similar function as the most bombastic member of a cast full of talented women, McCarthy’s energy is almost identical to Spencer’s, making for an unusual variable that probably won’t, but still could, surprise us all.
Best Supporting Actor
Statistically speaking: With too many awards this year to list for his wonderful part in Beginners as an elderly gay man living the lifestyle after years of being in the closet, Christopher Plummer is absolutely unbeatable. After more than 50 years in the film world, the veteran actor finally got his first nomination for playing Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station, but the 82-year-old is a lock this time around.
Going by your gut: What part of unbeatable didn’t you understand?
Best Actress
Statistically speaking: Here’s a neck and neck event. Each showered with commendations galore for their roles in The Help and The Iron Lady respectively, Viola Davis and Meryl Streep have been jockeying for the Oscar relentlessly since the start of the year. Davis won the Critics’ Choice, and then Streep won the Golden Globe. Davis took home the Screen Actors Guild Award, and Streep got the BAFTA. Whose turn is it this time? Davis would be my guess, but I emphasize the word “guess.”
Going by your gut: If there’s anyone in the category who can split the vote, it’s Michelle Williams, who’s drastically different from her competition as history’s most famous starlet in My Week with Marilyn. Don’t forget, she also won the Globe for Comedy to be paired with Streep’s win for Drama.
Best Actor
Statistically speaking: The Artist star Jean Dujardin has the inside track here, but close behind is George Clooney for The Descendants. Dujardin’s award count is significantly higher, but the acclaim Clooney has gotten just shows how high he ranks in terms of popularity. Plus, multiple award nominees often walk away with something and as the co-writer of The Ides of March, he might have some extra heat.
Going by your gut: From time to time, the least promoted performance gets the spotlight in the acting categories. Just look at Roberto Benigni in Life Is Beautiful, Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball, or Jessica Lange in Blue Sky. You never know when one of these surprises will pop up, and A Better Life actor Demián Bichir could be just the guy for one such shocker. Shakes up the odds the more you think about it, huh?
Best Director
Statistically speaking: Plenty of awards have found their way into the hands of Michel Hazanavicius, and by all indications, he’ll add another trophy to his collection in a few days time. What’s more, the maker of The Artist also received the Directors Guild Award, a strong indicator of his chances. In nine of the last 10 Oscar ceremonies, the winner of the Best Director Oscar was the same person to get the DGA.
Going by your gut: While Chicago Rob Marshall won the DGA in 2003, come Academy Awards time, the name announced was that of Roman Polanski, who had also gained the Palme d’Or from the Cannes Film Festival for The Pianist. Few recipients of the Palme end up being in contention for the Best Director Oscar, but could The Tree of Life helmer Terrence Malick repeat the pattern? Perhaps, though the definite answer will come on Sunday.
Best Picture
Statistically speaking: The Artist and The Descendants have the most going for them as we come to the close of awards season, but the former has more nominations across the board. As an ongoing trend, the top prize of Oscar night is usually paired with the Best Director winner, and with Hazanavicius drawing much more buzz than Alexander Payne, it isn’t hard to calculate what will happen.
Going by your gut: The last time Best Picture and Best Director were split up, Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain was beaten out by Crash in one of the biggest upsets since Citizen Kane lost to How Green Was My Valley. Never assume crowd-pleasers like War Horse, The Help or Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close can’t win. In that same line of thought, family movies may not make much of an impact anymore, but the sheer quality of Hugo — coupled with Martin Scorsese’s Golden Globe win for direction — makes me think anything could happen.
The 84th Academy Awards air this Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC. For more information on the Academy Awards Ceremony please visit http://oscar.go.com.
